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The U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards, and Trump has not yet seriously considered re-election for a third term.

Post time: 2025-10-28 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: The U.S. dollar index fluctuates downward, and Trump has not really considered re-election for a third term." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On October 28, in early Asian trading on Tuesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.70. On Monday, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards and finally closed slightly down 0.13% to 98.81. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.9790%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 3.4990%. The latest developments in the global trade conflict have cooled the demand for safe havens. Spot gold fell nearly 3%, falling below the US$3,990/ounce mark, falling more than US$100 during the day, and finally closed down 3.17%, at US$3,981.74/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 3.54%, at US$46.89/ounce. OPEC+ tends to slightly increase oil production in December again, and international oil prices closed lower. WTI crude oil finally closed down 0.15% at US$61.37/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.96% at US$65.17/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.70. Traders are 97% expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by ?25 basis points at its next meeting, as revealed by the PrimeMarket Terminal Rate Probability Tool. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below the 50MA at 98.83, it will move towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 98.00–98.20 range.

The U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards, and Trump has not yet seriously considered re-election for a third term.(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1655. U.S. and Chinese officials hold talks in MalaysiaThe groundwork was laid for Thursday's meeting between Trump and Xi after trade negotiators discussed tariffs, freight rates, fentanyl and rare earth export controls. Technically, if EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1650 level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.1685–1.1700.

The U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards, and Trump has not yet seriously considered re-election for a third term.(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3352. The Federal Reserve's interest rate conference call on Wednesday is widely expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points. After months of strikes, the Federal Reserve finally launched a new interest rate cut plan at its last meeting, and the market is convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates for the second consecutive time this week. The key point in this week's Fed rate decision will be how likely it is that the Fed will cut interest rates for a third consecutive time in December. Technically, a break above the 1.3350 level will push GBP/USD towards the next resistance level of 1.3485–1.3500.

The U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards, and Trump has not yet seriously considered re-election for a third term.(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Tuesday, gold hovered around 3999.66. The precious metal attracted some sellers after the United States and China agreed on the framework of a trade deal. Traders braced for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. Attention will shift to Thursday's meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards, and Trump has not yet seriously considered re-election for a third term.(图4)

Technical: On the daily chart, the bullish 20 SMA is above current levels, providing dynamic resistance at $4,066, while the 100 SMA is bullish, advancing at $3,560. The 200 SMA also edged higher towards $3322, reinforcing the broader positive bias and providing deeper support. A sustained break above the 20 SMA could reiterate the uptrend and open the door for further gains.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Tuesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 60.97. Iraq's oil minister reported that crude oil exports hit a record high in September, exceeding 102 million barrels, and announced negotiations with OPEC on the size of the quota. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude has hit a session low just under $61.00 but held on to most of last week's gains on hopes that a meeting between Trump and Xi will extend the trade truce between the world's two major economies.

The U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards, and Trump has not yet seriously considered re-election for a third term.(图5)

Technical aspect: In view of the fact that WTI crude oil prices have encountered obstacles at major technical barriers, and the Sino-US tradeAfter the progress, concerns about global demand have eased, and the short-term outlook for oil prices is bearish. Unless WTI crude oil regains its 50-day moving average, the path of least resistance for oil prices remains further to the downside, with traders currently targeting the $59.94 to $58.41 retracement range as the next downside target.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on October 28, 2025

①15:00 German Gfk Consumer Confidence Index in November

②21:00 U.S. August FHFA house price index monthly rate

③21:00 S&P/CS non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate in 20 major cities in the United States in August

④22:00 U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence in October Index

⑤22:00 US October Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

⑥04:30 US API crude oil inventory for the week to October 24th the next day

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