The Federal Reserve continues to stage a "fight between hawks and doves". This week's non-farm payrolls and CPI will be the finale.

On December 15, in early Asian trading on Monday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.46. Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index rebounded, but gave up almost all of the day's gains during the U.S. trading session, finally closing up 0.04% at 98.40, recording three consecutive negative weeks; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closed at 4.184%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.533%. Spot gold once reached US$4,350, a new high in the past seven weeks, but then plunged by nearly a hundred US dollars, and finally closed up 0.48% at US$4,300.38 per ounce; spot silver set a new all-time high above US$64.6, but then plunged sharply, finally closing down 2.5% at US$61.96 per ounce. Affected by supply concerns, international oil prices continued to fall. WTI crude oil finally closed down 0.83% at US$57.24/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.68% at US$61.47/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.46. While most have opted to begin easing policy, dissenting voices suggest confidence in inflation is far from jq.xmxmxm.cnplete, a reminder that the path forward for U.S. rates may remain uneven and highly dependent on data. Technically, if the U.S. Dollar Index can fall back above 98.50, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 98.85 to 99.00 range.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering at 1Around .1729. The euro lacks its own dynamism. The EU's macroeconomic calendar provided no relevant jq.xmxmxm.cnrmation, while European Central Bank (ECB) officials gave no clues ahead of a monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 17-18. Technically, the RSI remains in mid-range, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum if the right catalyst emerges. If EUR/USD remains above the 1.1715–1.1730 resistance, it will advance towards the next resistance level at 1.1805–1.1820.

Sterling: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3358, and GBP may continue to be the focus. The domestic calendar is busy, with key UK data releases and the Bank of England's (BoE) policy meeting on December 18 will determine the near-term direction. Technically, a break below the 50-day moving average of 1.3329 will push GBP/USD towards support, which is located between 1.3250 and 1.3365.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In Asian trading on Monday, gold hovered around 4304.29. The U.S. macroeconomic calendar will be quite busy over the next few days, with employment and inflation data taking center stage. Fed officials will return to the market, most likely to send a hawkish message. S&P Global will release its preliminary estimate of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December on Tuesday. On the same day, the country will release retail sales for October, which is expected to edge up 0.3%, and the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for November, which will also include some missing October data.

Technical: Gold is bullish, but may enter a consolidation phase. The 20-day SMA is higher than the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, all three are trending upward, underscoring the firm bullish bias. The shorter SMA provides dynamic support near $4,172. Technical indicators have reached overbought territory and have lost some of their upward momentum, hinting at the possibility of a corrective decline in the jq.xmxmxm.cning session. However, the overall upward trend remains and speculative interest may push gold prices towards the $4,380 area and beyond.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Monday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 57.47. Fundamental conditions remain unfavorable for bulls. U.S. production continues to remain near historically high levels, while Russian export flows have shown resilience despite sanctions and logistical friction. Asian refiners still get discounts on Iran, VenezuelaWithholding barrels increases global supply. These factors jq.xmxmxm.cnbine to reinforce the view that short-term supply exceeds consumer demand, limiting subsequent buying interest even after a sharp sell-off.

Technical: Short-term oil price forecasts remain bearish. With unresolved supply risks, geopolitical developments dampening risk premiums, and weekly technical signals heading lower, crude oil lacks a convincing reversal catalyst. Until prices move back towards the 52-day moving average and fundamentals show clear tightening, a rebound could attract selling interest, keeping downside risks alive.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on December 15, 2025

①09:30 Monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China

②10:00 China’s total retail sales of consumer goods in November year-on-year

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③10:00 China’s industrial added value above designated size in November year-on-year

④18:00 Eurozone industrial output monthly rate in October

⑤21:30 Canada’s November CPI monthly rate

⑥21:30 U.S. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index in December

⑦22:30 Fed Governor Milan delivered a speech

⑧23:00 The U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index in December

⑨23:30 Fed Williams gave a speech on the economic outlook Jing delivered a speech

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