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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: The U.S. dollar index fluctuates downward, and non-agricultural heavyweights are jq.xmxmxm.cning." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday in Asian trading, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated around 98.42. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% last Friday to 98.44 points, but it still recorded a third consecutive weekly decline. Meanwhile, the pound fell on poor UK economic data. The dollar's recent weakness is largely due to the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Although the Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut this year, its remarks were interpreted by the market as less hawkish than expected, increasing investors' expectations that interest rates will continue to be cut next year, thus putting pressure on the dollar.
US dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index is hovering around 98.43. The market focus will quickly turn to the release of the November non-agricultural sector employment report and the latest consumer price index. These two data will directly affect the expected pricing of interest rates in December and the first quarter of next year. If the job market shows signs of accelerating cooling, it may strengthen the dovish tone and push the dollar to weaken further; conversely, if inflation rebounds again or wage growth exceeds expectations, it may trigger discussions about suspending interest rate cuts or even restarting tightening, thus boosting the dollar. At the same time, a number of voting Fed officials will speak out intensively this week, and their rhetorical tendencies deserve close attention. Judging from the daily structure, the U.S. dollar index failed to continue after two surges near 100.36/100.39, forming a phased double top and then falling back. It recently fell below and continued to run below the 99.0000 line, with the center of gravity shifting significantly; it is currently near 98.40, which is close to the support band near the previous low of 98.1330. In terms of kinetic energy indicators, MACD is below the zero axis and DIFF (-0.1984) is lower than DEA (-0.0505). The column continues to weaken, showing that downward inertia still accounts forleading. The RSI is about 35.8, which is in a weak range. It has the characteristics of "oversold" in the short term. However, before the trend is reversed, the sustainability of the rebound still needs to be verified by more signals. At the top, focus on the pressure area near 98.80 and 99.00, and at the bottom, focus on the support effectiveness of 98.13/98.00.
U.S. President Trump said that he hopes to see interest rates reduced to 1% or lower within a year, which is far lower than the current Federal Reserve policy interest rate range. Trump believes that the current QualcommHe said inflation was “inherited from the previous administration” and predicted that U.S. price conditions would be “very good” as we approach the election in a few months. He also revealed that he was considering the possibility of investing in defense jq.xmxmxm.cnpanies and said that the US investment plan he promoted has not yet fully taken effect. Trump expressed uncertainty about the upcoming midterm elections, admitting that he was not sure whether current economic policies could help the Republican Party win the election.
According to a report on the British "Daily Telegraph" website on December 12, leaked data showed that the number of members of the Labor Party has been less than 250,000, while the British Reform Party's self-announced total number of members is nearly 269,000. Accordingly, it claims to have surpassed the Labor Party to become the largest political party in the UK. Nigel Farage, leader of the British Reform Party, said that this was a huge milestone for the party and declared that "the era of two-party politics is over." If this data is true, it would be another major blow to the Labor Party led by Keir Starmer, reflecting that the influence of Britain's traditional mainstream parties may face challenges from emerging political forces. The British Reform Party is known for its policy propositions such as emphasizing sovereignty and controlling immigration. Its rising influence may further reshape British political issues and campaign landscape.
On the 14th local time, it was learned that Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the "peace plan" aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not satisfy everyone and will inevitably include various jq.xmxmxm.cnpromises. Zelensky pointed out: "The plan will not be a plan that everyone likes. Of course, there will be many jq.xmxmxm.cnpromises in various versions of the plan. Ukraine has submitted the latest opinions and modifications to the plan to the United States." He particularly emphasized that any jq.xmxmxm.cnpromise must be based on fairness. Zelensky said that the most important thing is that the plan must be as fair as possible, especially for Ukraine; and the "peace plan" must be effective, not just a piece of paper, but an important step towards ending the conflict. Zelensky also emphasized that the plan must ensure that after signing, Russia cannot launch new military operations against the Ukrainian people.
The debate in the U.S. Treasury market over the extent of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is heating up with the release of a series of key economic data. Bond traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice next year, one more cut than the Fed has hinted at, and if market expectations are correct, it will lay the foundation for another good year for U.S. Treasuries, which are heading for their best year since 2020. George Catrambone, director of fixed income at DWS Americas, said: "The direction of interest rates will depend on the direction of the labor market, so I will only focus on Tuesday's non-farm data." However, Kevin Flanagan of WisdomTree said: "This week's employment report mayThe weight is lighter as the government shutdown jq.xmxmxm.cnplicates data collection, turning his focus to a report early next month that will be released ahead of the Fed's Jan. 28 policy decision. "Traders, according to proxy indicators in the swap market, believe that the Fed will end this easing cycle at an interest rate of around 3.2%. If the Fed basically remains unchanged in the face of stubborn inflation, this will indicate that national debt will be more range-bound in the future.
British Financial Times analysis pointed out that given that ECB President Lagarde believes that the bank is in "good condition", investors unanimously expect the ECB to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% and instead focus on its economic forecasts. Lagarde said this week that interest rate setters may once again raise these stronger growth forecasts for the euro zone at the meeting. Predictions and persistent inflation have recently led traders to increase bets on a rate hike by the European Central Bank next year. But as the potential shift in the direction of monetary policy remains controversial and swap market pricing has only occurred in recent weeks, traders will be particularly focused on clues about the timing of a rate hike and any adjustments to policy signals are expected to be subtle. Eurozone economist George Moran said he does not expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in 2026 because "cyclical tailwinds may be temporary." He added that the European Central Bank has "made it clear that it does not want to overreact to temporary deviations from the target."
The Financial Times analysis pointed out that the U.S. non-farm payrolls report released on Tuesday will include data for October and November, finally providing policymakers and investors with a more jq.xmxmxm.cnplete picture of the U.S. labor market, ending some months of flying blindly. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to three after a deeply divided meeting this week. At the low point in 2019, several officials disagreed, and the focus of the debate was whether to prioritize high inflation or the weak job market. Citigroup economists pointed out that the latest employment report to be released may send more contradictory signals. The bank expects employment to decrease by about 45,000 in October, but Citigroup economists said that this rebound may be more related. Data adjustments based on seasonality are related to "real improvement in worker demand." They also predict that the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while the Fed's own quarterly forecast shows that the unemployment rate will be about 4.5% at the end of the year.
Financial markets are almost certain that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at Thursday's meeting. Goldman Sachs economist James Moberly expects that the Bank of England's chief economist Peel and external members Green and Mann will vote to keep interest rates unchanged. He believes that the number of people in this camp may increase.Vice President Lombardelli, depending on subsequent data. Governor Bailey is likely to cast the deciding vote among the nine-member board. Since November, the MPC minutes have included paragraphs summarizing each member's personal views. Moberly expects Bailey to acknowledge the recent weakness in the labor market during part of his remarks and hint at further easing of policy if the data is in line with expectations. Many economists expect little change in formal guidance, with the BoE reiterating that interest rates are likely to gradually fall but likely emphasizing that future decisions will be data-dependent and noting that the bar for further cuts will be higher as policy approaches the so-called "neutral rate."
TD Securities strategists said in a report that the pound may weaken due to the Bank of England's possible interest rate cut on Thursday and market expectations for another interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026. However, GBP/USD should continue to strengthen as the risk premium triggered by November's UK budget fades over the jq.xmxmxm.cning weeks. Furthermore, there is still room for improvement in sterling positions as market sentiment towards the US dollar weakens. But on the other hand, if progress is made on the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, GBP/EUR could lag.
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